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Jan 19, PM. Eva 2, books view quotes. Jan 11, AM. J books view quotes. Jan 09, AM. Brooke 1 book view quotes. Jan 05, PM. Noelle 5 books view quotes. Nov 17, PM. The emerging "Trump Doctrine" uses economic sanctions and tariffs to bully other countries, accompanied by fiery threats of military action without actual attacks.
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Not only is the doctrine foolhardy, it isn't working. Since May, six oil tankers in the Persian Gulf area have come under attack. The Trump Administration immediately blamed Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps for attaching mines to the ships, and provided grainy video as evidence. Iran denies attacking the tankers. The US claimed the drone was flying over international waters. Iranian officials said the drone entered Iranian airspace and displayed drone wreckage at a press conference to bolster their argument.
The next day, in a bizarre sequence of events, Trump ordered the Pentagon to attack an Iranian missile battery, and then called back the planes at the last minute. He claimed this was because he had learned the raid could cause Iranian casualties, but an investigation by The Daily Beast revealed he had known the body count prior to green-lighting the attack. Rightwing hawks in the US criticized Trump for calling off the attack. Liberal Democrats pointed out that he started the whole mess by withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal.
Trump supporters tried to pass off the flip flop as a brilliant tactical move that threw the Iranians off balance.
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In fact, the Iranian government saw Trump's vacillation as a sign of weakness, according to a Tehran journalist with close government ties, who is not authorized to speak to the media. So, instead of dropping bombs on Iran, Trump announced new sanctions claiming to seize financial assets of top officials such as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Since the sanctioned leaders don't have western bank accounts or other such assets, the sanctions mean nothing. Now the Trump Administration is caught in a bind of its own creation.
It would have great difficulty invading and occupying Iran because of the huge financial cost and potential for an astronomical death toll on both sides. So-called limited military strikes can destroy installations, but they also rally people to support their government.
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Harsh sanctions can cause a lot of human suffering, but they won't lead Iranians to rise up and install a pro-US regime. So Trump is stuck trying to come up with new sanctions and ever more bombastic ways to threaten military assaults without actually doing so. Trump has turned Teddy Roosevelt's famous slogan on its head: talk loudly but carry a teensy-weensy stick. Of course it's possible that Trump's ultra-right wing advisors will persuade him to launch an attack, according to Professor Foad Izadi, an expert on US-Iran relations at the University of Tehran.
If he did, he tells me by phone, "There would be a major military response. The European signers of the nuclear accord, including the United Kingdom, Germany, and France, object to the US pulling out of the nuclear accord and oppose unilateral US sanctions.
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But they haven't done anything in practice to live up to the legally binding agreement. Iran has given those countries until July 8 to lift their de facto sanctions on Iran, specifically, to facilitate trade in Iranian oil and gas.
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Russia and China have taken such steps, so could Europe. If nothing changes by July 8, Izadi says, Iran will take a number of calibrated steps to increase the amount of enriched uranium used for generating electrical power, and increase the level of enrichment to as high as 60 percent. That would bring Iran closer to the 90 percent level needed to produce a nuclear bomb. Even with enough uranium for a bomb, however, experts say Iran has no ability to build one.
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